Thursday, November 13, 2008

Sell Energy, buy Housing! Reverse Bob Doll Strategy

Bob Doll is CEO of BlackRock, one of the largest money managers in the US. I worked for Merrill Lynch in 2006 & 2007 and BlackRock is/was half owned by Merill. Bob Doll would send weekly market outlooks and he was consistently more bullish than any of Merrill's lead analysts or economists. Almost every interview I have seen with him has been overly bullish. I don't claim to know Doll's investment record, but I don't recall BlackRock having a whole lot of great mutual funds.

For those reasons, I am jokingly suggesting a reverse Bob Doll long-short strategy. Today, on Bloomberg Doll suggested that energy stocks are cheap and housing stocks are still in trouble. Our reverse strategy will be to do the exact opposite. We will sell the energy ETF (XLE) and buy the Dow Jones Housing Index (IYR).

Please don't actually put on this trade unless you have your own reasons to do so. I hate to bet against some of the most respected investors, even if they are wrong more than half the time.

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