Quote of the Day

"As if we did not have enough problems, banks are now more vulnerable to the Black Swan and the ludic fallacy than ever before with “scientists” among their staff taking care of exposures. The giant firm J. P. Morgan put the entire world at risk by introducing in the nineties RiskMetrics, a phony method aiming at managing people’s risks, causing the generalized use of the ludic fallacy, and bringing Dr. Johns into power in place of the skeptical Fat Tonys. (A related method called “Value-at-Risk,” which relies on the quantitative measurement of risk, has been spreading.)"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Quote of the Day

"Banks hire dull people and train them to be even more dull. If they look conservative, it’s only because their loans go bust on rare, very rare occasions. But (…)bankers are not conservative at all. They are just phenomenally skilled at self-deception by burying the possibility of a large, devastating loss under the rug."

-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, from The Black Swan



If you are an active trader and have not read The Black Swan and Taleb's other book, Fooled by Randmoness, you are at a huge competitive disadvantage against traders that have. If you have not made money in this bear market it is because you have not read two of the most transformational books on chance (but more importantly life and investing).